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The upcoming holiday shopping season is projected to deliver steady gains for U.S. retailers, though growth is expected to normalize after the pandemic-driven spending surges of recent years. According to Deloitte’s 2025 holiday forecast, total retail sales between November and January are set to climb by 2.9% to 3.4%, reaching between $1.61 trillion and $1.62 trillion.
That growth translates to an estimated $40–$45 billion in additional spending compared to last year. While positive, it falls short of the 4.2% increase in 2024, signaling a return to pre-pandemic historical averages.
Income Gains Drive Outlook Amid Economic Uncertainty
Deloitte attributes this year’s growth primarily to rising disposable incomes. The firm expects disposable personal income to expand between 3.1% and 5.4% during the holiday season, which it says is a reliable predictor of both retail and ecommerce performance.
“Steady income growth can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending,” explained Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights, in releasing the report.
This resilience is particularly important given the ongoing pressures of elevated household debt levels and mixed signals in the job market. Deloitte’s model also factors in two anticipated interest rate cuts, which, while not immediately boosting disposable cash, are expected to lift consumer sentiment and support holiday shopping.
eCommerce Sales Expected to Hit New Milestone
Digital channels remain the clear growth engine. Deloitte projects that holiday eCommerce sales will increase by 7% to 9%, reaching $305 billion to $310.7 billion.
This sustained double-digit growth rate for eCommerce contrasts with the slower expansion in total retail, underlining how consumers are increasingly favoring online shopping for convenience, promotions, and broader assortments.
Importantly, Deloitte stressed that this initial forecast is based on economic indicators, not consumer intention surveys. Its separate holiday spending survey, focused on shopper sentiment and behavioral trends, will be released in October.
Retailers Face a More Competitive Landscape
While the overall spending outlook is positive, Deloitte cautions that retailers cannot rely on blanket consumer resilience.
“This year’s forecast of 2.9% to 3.4% growth is more in line with historical averages we used to see in holiday before the pandemic, when we really saw these bigger spikes in holiday spending,” said Brian McCarthy, Principal, Deloitte’s Retail Strategy & Analytics Practice.
McCarthy emphasized three priorities for retailers navigating this environment:
- Sharper Value Proposition – With consumers more price-conscious, promotions and competitive pricing strategies will be essential.
- Product Strategy – Demand for private-label products and domestically manufactured goods is expected to increase, reflecting both value-driven and ethical shopping preferences.
- Promotion Timing – The battle for holiday dollars may start earlier than ever, as consumers spread purchases across the season to avoid potential price hikes.
Consumer Behavior: Resilience With Caveats
One recurring theme in recent holiday seasons has been the disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual spending. Despite reporting lower confidence amid inflation and debt pressures, shoppers have consistently spent more than expected.
Last year is a case in point: Deloitte’s 2024 forecast predicted growth between 2.3% and 3.3%, but actual sales climbed 4.2%.
“Consumers say that they feel a little less confident. And yet they continue to show up and they continue to spend,” McCarthy observed.
Still, early indicators point to potential headwinds. PwC’s 2025 holiday consumer intentions survey, released last week, found that for the first time since 2020, Americans plan to spend less than they did the previous year:
- Overall average spending is projected to decline by 5%.
- Gen Z shoppers (ages 17–28) plan to cut their holiday budgets by a steep 23%, more than any other age group.
That generational shift could put pressure on categories like fast fashion, electronics, and entertainment, where Gen Z historically over-indexes. PwC cautioned that retailers may face a tougher battle for Gen Z’s discretionary dollars.
Back to “Normal” Holiday Growth
Ultimately, Deloitte’s forecast underscores a stabilization of holiday retail patterns after years of pandemic-driven volatility, stimulus-fueled spending, and inflationary spikes.
For retailers, the message is clear:
- Growth opportunities remain, particularly in eCommerce.
- Consumers are resilient, but not unlimited in spending power.
- Strategic planning around pricing, promotions, and product mix will be crucial in a competitive, margin-sensitive environment.
As Deloitte puts it, 2025 may mark a return to the holiday retail playbook of the past — one where steady growth rewards retailers that innovate while staying sharply focused on value.
