Holiday 2025 Has Early Shoppers, Cautious Budgets, and BNPL on the Rise: Is Your Store Ready?
Report summary based on the Ryder 2025 eCommerce Consumer Study The newly released Ryder 2025
BFCM 2025 is projected to be the biggest holiday shopping season yet, with online sales expected to cross $1.5 trillion. But bigger doesn’t mean easier. Sellers face rising ad costs, inflation-conscious shoppers, and stricter marketplace rules across marketplaces like Amazon, Walmart, TikTok Shop, or SHEIN.
Winning this year requires sharper BFCM 2025 strategies. From AI-driven ads and short-form video dominance to smarter fulfillment and payment options, a tech upgrade is essential.
BFCM has evolved from midnight in-store flash sales to a global, omnichannel event powered by AI in eCommerce. What started as two separate shopping days has merged into a holiday season where mobile, marketplaces, and social commerce dominate.
The BFCM 2025 evolution is clear: TikTok Shop is enforcing GMV targets for sellers, SHEIN is expanding its marketplace reach, and Meta’s AI Ads are reshaping how campaigns scale. In fact, over 56% of U.S. holiday eCommerce sales came from mobile, proving that the shift is not only permanent but accelerating into 2025.
The 2024 holiday season confirmed what sellers suspected: shoppers are buying earlier, spending cautiously, and prioritizing discounts. U.S. holiday eCommerce sales hit $131.5B, with 79% of orders placed on mobile. BNPL usage surged, with more than 70% of Gen Z and Millennials opting to split payments.
Looking ahead, BFCM 2025 predictions show record-breaking demand despite inflation. NRF expects online and non-store sales to reach nearly $1.6 trillion this year, but consumer behavior will stay budget-first. Shoppers will compare across platforms, switch brands for better pricing, and expect BNPL, UPI, and wallet options at checkout.
Holiday season sales forecast data proves that while topline growth continues, the challenge for sellers is protecting margins while meeting buyer expectations for flexibility, speed, and value.
The 2025 holiday season is more competitive than ever, and you can’t rely on discounts alone. Here are the seven strategies you need to implement now to stay competitive.
Social commerce isn’t optional—it’s where your customers already shop. TikTok Shop, SHEIN Marketplace, and Facebook/Instagram Shops are mainstream channels supported by AI-driven ad tools that push discoverability.
Seller Actions:
Mobile is the primary driver of BFCM sales—56.5% of U.S. holiday eCommerce sales came from smartphones in 2024 (BigCommerce). AI powers personalized feeds, recommendations, and chatbots.
Seller Actions:
BOPIS and ROPIS are no longer pandemic-only trends—they’re consumer expectations. In 2024, nearly 20% of Cyber Monday orders were fulfilled via BOPIS (Adobe).
Seller Actions:
Inflation has made flexible payments a deal-maker. Over 70% of Gen Z and Millennials used BNPL in 2024 (Salesforce), while UPI dominates India/APAC.
Seller Actions:
Shoppers expect free shipping, but sellers can’t absorb every cost. In 2024, 81% of BFCM shoppers said free delivery influenced their purchase decision (NRF).
Seller Actions:
Holiday returns are massive—16.6% of purchases were returned in 2024 (Salesforce). Sellers who simplify returns earn long-term loyalty.
Seller Actions:
Short-form video is the #1 content format for discovery. Platforms like TikTok Shop, Instagram Reels, and Meta’s Advantage+ are reshaping advertising. AI-generated creatives are cutting CPC by 20–30% for top brands (Barron’s).
Seller Actions:
Most sellers know they need strong listings, healthy inventory, and smart ads for BFCM. But in 2025, the details matter more than ever. Marketplaces are rolling out stricter listing compliance rules, shoppers are buying earlier and faster (making inventory forecasting critical), and ad costs are rising, demanding a sharper ad budget strategy.
Here are three advanced tactics to help you tighten your operations and maximize holiday ROI.
Amazon has rolled out stricter listing attribute requirements, including mandatory product specs, compliance documents, and accurate GTIN mapping for certain categories. Walmart and TikTok Shop are also tightening rules around content formatting and image quality. Non-compliance can lead to suppressed or delisted SKUs, especially during peak holiday traffic.
What to do?
Nothing kills BFCM momentum like running out of stock or sitting on unsold inventory post-holidays. With unpredictable demand spikes, AI-powered forecasting is essential.
What to do?
With ad costs rising year-over-year, smart allocation is the difference between profit and margin erosion. The key is balancing spend across proven channels while keeping room for testing new formats.
What to do?
You don’t have to tackle these strategies alone. CedCommerce combines powerful tools with hands-on services to help you maximize holiday performance across Shopify and global marketplaces.
Get started with UniCon and make BFCM 2025 the season you scale, not just sell.
With $2.5B+ in seller revenue managed during past holiday seasons and partnerships across Shopify, Meta, Amazon, and TikTok, CedCommerce is positioned to be your growth partner this BFCM.
This BFCM, don’t just list your products—scale with precision, automation, and marketplace dominance.
BFCM 2025 won’t be won on discounts alone. Success depends on how well you bring together AI-driven campaigns, omnichannel inventory sync, and a buyer-first experience—from payments and delivery to post-purchase service. Shoppers will reward brands that are fast, flexible, and trustworthy across every touchpoint.
Now is the time to act. Make sure your business has the right foundation to scale and capture every opportunity this season.
Book a Shopify Plus consultation to optimize your store for peak performance.
Talk to our Marketplace Growth Experts to unlock tailored strategies for Amazon, Walmart, Etsy, eBay, TikTok Shop, and more.
With the right BFCM 2025 readiness plan, you can turn challenges into opportunities and build long-term holiday eCommerce success strategies that last beyond the weekend.
Report summary based on the Ryder 2025 eCommerce Consumer Study The newly released Ryder 2025
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