Tariffs. AI-driven marketplace algorithms. The repeal of de minimis. And ad costs rise Y-O-Y. For merchants, Black Friday Cyber Monday (BFCM) 2025 is shaping up to be the most complex sales season yet. The truth? BFCM is no longer a four-day sprint. It’s a two-month marathon where the best-prepared sellers capture demand long before competitors even launch their first discounts.

Pre BFCM 2025 Preparation Stats(Shift in BFCM 2025 early shopper behaviour and projected revenue)

The Black Friday weekend used to be the Super Bowl of eCommerce – an intense, four-day push of deals and discounts. Fast forward to 2025, and that model no longer exists. Shoppers aren’t waiting for a single weekend to score bargains. They’re spreading purchases across weeks, hunting for early deals, and locking in products before stockouts hit.

Why the shift?

  • Fear of stockouts: Shoppers know top products won’t last. Buying in October secures availability.
  • Early promos from marketplaces: Amazon, Walmart, TikTok Shop, and SHEIN are all pushing “holiday kickoff” campaigns weeks before BFCM weekend.
  • Rising ad competition: By the time November hits, ad costs are already spiking. Sellers who start late pay more and reach fewer buyers.

The implication is clear: BFCM has transformed into a multi-phase sales season. Merchants who start early can spread risk, smooth operations, and capture demand before the “November frenzy” begins.

Why Start Early? Core Merchant Advantages

Starting early isn’t just about being organized; it’s about securing measurable advantages that late movers simply can’t catch up on. Whether you’re a Shopify D2C brand or a multi-marketplace seller, early preparation gives you control over your inventory, marketing costs, and site performance at the exact time competitors are still scrambling.

1. Get First Dibs on Inventory and Supplier Capacity

One of the biggest risks during BFCM is running out of stock on your hero products. When half your catalog is “sold out” before Cyber Monday, shoppers won’t wait; they’ll switch to competitors.
Early planning ensures you’re at the front of the supplier queue. By August–September, you can:

  • Negotiate better unit costs by ordering in advance.
  • Build buffer stock to account for port delays, shipping bottlenecks, and the upcoming de minimis repeal (expected to affect 1.36B+ small-parcel packages annually).
  • Run demand forecasts using your past two years of BFCM sales, so you order accurately instead of overcommitting or understocking.

Stat to note: 39% of brands experienced stock issues during BFCM 2024 (Retail Dive). That’s nearly 4 in 10 sellers losing sales, not because of weak demand, but because they ran out of supply.

CedCommerce tip: Our AI-led agentic commerce tool, UniCon, helps sellers allocate stock across Shopify, Amazon, Walmart, and TikTok Shop so you avoid overselling on one channel and understocking on another.

2. Lower Your Marketing Costs Before the Auction Frenzy

Every seller wants a slice of BFCM traffic, and ad platforms know it. That’s why CPCs rise 20–40% in the two weeks leading up to Black Friday (Klaviyo). If you wait until mid-November to turn on campaigns, you’re walking straight into a bidding war.

By starting in September–October, you can:

  • Lock in audiences at cheaper CPMs while competition is lower.
  • Warm up your email and SMS lists with teasers and opt-in offers.
  • Test creative formats (video, carousels, UGC vs branded) before the high-stakes weeks, so you know what resonates.

Example: Brands running early-bird email campaigns saw 2–3× higher CTRs than those waiting for Black Friday weekend (Klaviyo).

Pro tip for Shopify D2C sellers: Launch “hint of holiday” campaigns in October, using gift guides and early-access codes.

Pro tip for Marketplace sellers: Use small pre-BFCM discounts on Amazon to climb rankings early, then switch to aggressive offers during BFCM itself.

 

3. More Time to Test, Optimize, and Automate

The BFCM rush will expose every weakness in your site. Shoppers won’t tolerate laggy checkouts or failed payments when there are dozens of alternatives one click away. Starting early gives you the test window you need to fix issues before they cost you real revenue.
What to test by October:
  • Site performance: Achieve sub-2-second load times across devices.
  • Checkout flow: One-page checkout, guest checkout, autofill for addresses and cards.
  • Payment mix: Ensure wallets (Apple Pay, Google Pay) and BNPL options are enabled.
  • Automation: Set up abandoned cart, browse abandonment, and VIP early-access flows to recover sales even when traffic spikes.
Stat to remember: Just a 1-second delay can reduce conversions by 7% (Portent). Imagine losing nearly 1 in 10 buyers because of a laggy product page.
CedCommerce tip: Merchants using our store optimization suite can simulate high-traffic events in advance, ensuring infrastructure holds up during peak days.

The Early BFCM 2025 Checklist: Month-by-Month Playbook

BFCM Preparation Checklist: August to September BFCM Prep Checklist 2025: September to October BFCM Checklist: October to November 2025 BFCM Preparation Checklist 2025: November to BFCM
 

Platform-Specific Early Prep Tactics for BFCM 2025

Every marketplace plays by its own rules. Early BFCM prep isn’t just about generic best practices; it’s about knowing what each platform prioritizes and aligning your store well ahead of time. Here’s how to get a head start across the top sales channels for 2025.

Shopify / DTC Stores

Shopify merchants control their own brand experience, but they’re competing against rising CPCs and endless DTC offers. The earlier you optimize, the smoother your BFCM funnel will run.
  • Build landing pages by September: Create dedicated BFCM pages for top deals. SEO-optimize them now so they can rank before November.
  • Site optimization tools: Use A/B testing apps and site speed boosters early to avoid last-minute surprises.
  • Email + SMS sync: Start building segmented lists in September to fuel early-bird campaigns.
Pro Tip: Use CedCommerce’s Shopify services to sync promotions across your DTC store and marketplaces, ensuring brand consistency.

Amazon

Inventory cutoff deadlines hit earlier each year, and organic rank is heavily influenced by sales velocity. Sellers who prepare early get prime visibility when the sales floodgates open.

  • Ship FBA stock before October cut-offs: Amazon warehouses will be overloaded by mid-October. Late inventory often misses BFCM.
  • Rank-building promos: Run smaller discounts in October to increase organic ranking ahead of peak.
  • Enhanced content: Update A+ content and keyword-optimized listings with holiday terms.

Pro Tip: Use CedCommerce’s Amazon growth suite of services to optimize your inventory, product listing, and order fulfillment for BFCM 2025 and beyond.

Walmart, Etsy, eBay

These marketplaces reward early participation in holiday-specific events and keyword alignment.

Marketplace holiday events: Enroll in Walmart’s “Deals for Days” or Etsy’s seasonal collections well ahead of November.

  • Seasonal SEO: Add holiday-related keywords to titles, tags, and descriptions (e.g., “gift set,” “holiday special”).
  • Cross-list consistently: Don’t rely on one marketplace—list inventory across multiple platforms to maximize visibility.

Pro Tip: CedCommerce’s bulk listing tool lets you push updates across marketplaces in one go. Know More!

TikTok Shop, SHEIN, Temu

These emerging marketplaces function heavily on content velocity and algorithm-driven discovery. Sellers who batch content and leverage platform promos early can dominate feeds.

  • Batch October content: Film product demos, UGC-style clips, and unboxings now so you’re ready for daily publishing in November.
  • Promo tools: Explore platform-native features like TikTok LIVE shopping, SHEIN’s marketing credits, and Temu’s “mega deals.”
  • Creator partnerships: Lock in influencer collaborations by September so campaigns can roll out pre-BFCM.

Stats to Know:

  • Omnichannel shoppers spend 30% more than single-channel buyers (Google Retail Insights).
  • 73% of consumers prefer brands that personalize their shopping experience (Salesforce).

Explore end-to-end account management services, featuring influencer collabs, UGC content prep, and channel-specific listing optimization services for your BFCM sales growth!

Smart Merchandising & Product Prioritization for BFCM 2025

During BFCM, attention is scarce. Promoting your entire catalog not only confuses customers but also wastes ad spend on low-performing items. The merchants who succeed are those who double down on the right SKUs: the ones with proven potential to drive sales and repeat purchases. Smart merchandising is about focusing your energy where ROI is highest.

1. Identify High-Value SKUs With Data, Not Gut Feel

Instead of guessing which products will sell, use your own data:

  • LTV Net of COGS: Identify products that deliver high customer lifetime value after costs.
  • Repeat Purchase Rate: Highlight items that buyers come back for again and again.
  • Past BFCM Uplift: Check which SKUs spiked during BFCM 2023/2024.

Action Step: Build a “Top 10 SKUs” list that will anchor your campaigns. Make them the stars of your homepage banners, featured collections, and ad campaigns.

Shopify LTV, AOV & More Stats to monitor for BFCM 2025

2. Bundle Smarter to Grow AOV

Bundles aren’t just for clearing inventory; they’re one of the fastest ways to grow basket size during BFCM.

  • Pair High + Low: Match high-LTV items with slow-moving SKUs to maximize margin.
  • Holiday Bundles: Curate gift sets designed for convenience (e.g., “Holiday Starter Kit,” “Family Pack”).
  • Tiered Bundles: Reward volume—“Buy 2, save 10%” → “Buy 3, save 20%.”

Action Step: Pre-build bundles in September using CedCommerce apps like Amazon Shopify Integration. For marketplace sellers, replicate bundles across Amazon, Walmart, and Etsy to maintain consistency.

3. Merchandise With Purposeful Storytelling

The way you present products is as important as the products themselves.

  • Homepage Hero: Put your star products front and center.
  • Urgency Messaging: Add “Holiday Bestseller,” “Only X Left,” or “VIP Exclusive.”
  • Seasonal Imagery: Show products in gifting contexts—wrapped, under a tree, or in use at gatherings.

Optimize your D2C store with BFCM-specific themes, product pages, and layouts with our Shopify experts.

Marketplace Angle:

  • On Amazon, update A+ content with festive graphics.
  • On Etsy, refresh tags with holiday terms (“Christmas gift,” “Holiday special”).
  • On TikTok Shop, showcase your star SKUs in short UGC-style clips for algorithmic reach.

4. Operationalize Your Merchandising Decisions

Merchandising strategy should tie directly into ops and marketing:

  • Forecast Demand: Secure at least 20% buffer stock for hero SKUs.
  • Allocate Budgets: Dedicate 40–50% of ad spend to priority products.
  • Embed in Checkout: Add upsells/cross-sells of bundled SKUs at checkout to maximize order size.

Pro Tip: According to the Pareto Principle, 20% of products often drive 80% of sales. If you nail prioritization, you’ll scale revenue with less ad waste.

Pricing & Promotion Strategy: Tiered, Gamified & VIP-Driven Offers

Discounts are powerful, but they can also backfire. Slash too deep and your margins evaporate; discount too lightly and shoppers bounce to competitors. The smartest BFCM sellers don’t just discount; they engineer offers that drive higher cart value, loyalty, and urgency.

1. Tiered Discounts: Reward Bigger Baskets

Tiered discounts nudge customers to spend more by making larger purchases feel more rewarding.

  • Example: 10% off orders above $100, 20% off orders above $200, 25% off orders above $300.
  • Why it works: Buyers increase basket size to “unlock” the next discount level, boosting Average Order Value (AOV).

Merchants using tiered discounts during BFCM saw 15–20% higher AOV compared to flat-sitewide discounts (Polar Analytics).

Action Step: Map discount thresholds to your average basket size. If your AOV is $75, set your first tier just above that to encourage upsell.

2. Volume Discounts: Move More Units, Protect Margins

For products with high stock or repeat-purchase potential, volume discounts can move inventory quickly without resorting to blanket markdowns.

  • Example: Buy 3, Get 1 Free; or “Buy 2, Save 15%.”
  • Best for: Consumables, apparel basics, accessories, or items with strong repeat demand.

Case study: Shopify sellers using “Buy X Get Y” promos during BFCM 2024 reported up to a 25% increase in units per transaction (SkaiLama).

Action Step: Create volume deals that still protect your margins, calculate COGS, and ensure profit per bundle stays positive.

3. Gamified & VIP Offers: Add Urgency and Exclusivity

Shoppers love surprise and exclusivity. By gamifying offers or rewarding your top-tier buyers, you create urgency that flat discounts can’t match.

  • Mystery Discounts: “Spin to Win” wheels at checkout offering 10%–25% off, free shipping, or a mystery gift.
  • VIP Early Access: Give your most loyal subscribers 24–48 hours of exclusive access to deals.
  • Gift-With-Purchase: Offer a free item on orders over $250—customers love the sense of added value.

Data insight: Gamified promotions (mystery discounts, spin-to-win) saw 2× higher engagement rates than static promos during holiday sales (SkaiLama).

Action Steps:

  • A/B test mystery reward thresholds to find your sweet spot.
  • Add a VIP-only email/SMS flow for your best customers.
  • Use a spin-to-win form to grow your email list in September–October.

Shipping & Payment Readiness

A flawless checkout process can still collapse if your shipping or payment workflows fail under BFCM pressure. Nothing kills a conversion faster than a “delivery not guaranteed” warning or a failed payment screen. Preparing your shipping and payment systems in advance ensures shoppers can buy with confidence and that you don’t leave revenue on the table.

1. Shipping: Set Expectations and Build Resilience

Holiday buyers demand clarity and speed. Missed delivery promises not only create refund costs but can damage long-term customer trust.

  • Expand Options: Offer free shipping thresholds, expedited delivery, and in-store pickup (if available). Give customers choice.
  • Show Cutoff Dates: Display clear “Order by ___ to receive by Black Friday/Christmas” messages across product pages, cart, and checkout.
  • Backup Carriers: Partner with at least one alternative logistics provider to step in if your primary carrier experiences delays.
  • Warehouse Prep: Plan for extended hours and extra staffing during the November surge.

In 2024, 65% of abandoned carts cited unexpected shipping costs or unclear delivery timelines (Baymard Institute).

Action Step: By mid-October, map out cutoff dates with carriers and update them across your storefront.

2. Payments: More Options = More Conversions

Customers want to pay the way they prefer. Limiting methods = losing sales.

  • Card & Wallets: Ensure major credit cards and wallets like Apple Pay and Google Pay are active and tested.
  • BNPL Services: Add Buy Now, Pay Later providers (Shop Pay Installments, Klarna, Afterpay) to attract budget-conscious holiday shoppers.
  • Fraud Prevention: Enable real-time fraud detection to protect revenue without blocking legitimate buyers.

Adding BNPL can increase conversion rates by up to 30% among Gen Z and Millennial shoppers (Salesforce Holiday Report, 2024).

Action Step: Test every payment option across browsers, devices, and regions before November 1.

CedCommerce integrations allow you to sync shipping rules and payment configurations across Amazon, Walmart, TikTok Shop, eBay, Etsy, and other leading marketplaces. This ensures that every channel delivers a consistent, reliable checkout experience.

Tags:
BFCM 2025 Checklist