Online Retail in Germany Poised for Steady Growth Through 2030, IFH KÖLN Reports

Online retail spending in Germany is entering a renewed growth phase after several years of stagnation, with forecasts indicating sustained expansion through the end of the decade. According to a new industry report published by IFH KÖLN, Germany’s online retail market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.2 percent over the next four years, signaling a clear rebound in eCommerce momentum.

The research institute projects that online retail spending will continue to rise steadily, supported by structural shifts in consumer behavior, retail infrastructure, and digital adoption across the country.

Online Retail Spending Continues to Climb 

IFH KÖLN estimates that online retail spending in Germany could reach up to €110 billion this year, with growth expected to fall within a range of 2.7 percent to 5.7 percent depending on market conditions. This follows a 3.8 percent increase in online spending last year, reinforcing the view that eCommerce has moved past its recent slowdown phase.

After experiencing declines in the years following the pandemic-driven surge, Germany’s eCommerce market is now showing consistent upward movement again. Data from multiple industry sources align with IFH KÖLN’s findings, confirming that online retail has regained traction across the broader retail landscape.

Large Marketplaces Drive a Disproportionate Share of Growth 

The renewed expansion is being led primarily by Germany’s largest online retailers, with major platforms such as Amazon capturing a significant share of incremental growth. These players benefit from scale advantages, advanced logistics networks, and high consumer trust, enabling them to convert increased online demand more effectively than smaller or less digitally mature retailers.

As online shopping frequency rises, established platforms with fast delivery, wide assortments, and integrated services are increasingly positioned as default shopping destinations for German consumers.

Key Drivers Behind the eCommerce Revival 

According to IFH KÖLN, multiple structural factors are contributing to the current growth cycle. Market expert Hansjürgen Heinick highlights the growing role of digital infrastructure and everyday technology in reshaping purchasing behavior.

Key drivers include:

• Digitization of physical retail, where traditional stores increasingly integrate online channels, blurring the lines between offline and online shopping
• Social media influence, which continues to shape discovery, brand engagement, and impulse purchasing
• Smartphone usage, with mobile devices serving as constant access points for browsing and purchasing
• Declining density of physical stores, particularly in smaller towns and rural areas, which pushes consumers toward online alternatives
• Localized supply chain shortages, making eCommerce a practical necessity rather than a convenience in some regions  

Together, these factors are increasing the frequency of online purchases while expanding eCommerce’s role in everyday consumption.

Growth Spreads Across All Product Categories 

IFH KÖLN’s analysis indicates that online growth is occurring across all product categories, rather than being concentrated in a small number of segments.

Notably, online food retail stands out as the fastest-growing category, with a projected 14.6 percent growth rate this year. This reflects rising consumer acceptance of online grocery shopping, improved cold-chain logistics, and expanded delivery coverage.

Other high-growth segments include health and wellness, which is expected to grow by 8.8 percent, driven by demand for supplements, personal care products, and health-related services purchased online.

The broad-based nature of this growth suggests that eCommerce adoption in Germany is deepening rather than plateauing.

Scenario-Based Outlook Through 2029 

To project long-term growth, IFH KÖLN applied scenario analysis across three different market conditions. In all scenarios, online retail spending continues to increase through 2029, underscoring the structural resilience of eCommerce in Germany.

• Mid-range scenario: Average annual growth of 4.2 percent, resulting in approximately €128 billion in online retail spending by 2029
• High-growth scenario: Online spending reaching up to €141 billion by 2029 

Even under more conservative assumptions, eCommerce maintains a positive growth trajectory, supported by ongoing digitalization and changing consumer expectations.

A Structural Shift, Not a Short-Term Rebound 

The report suggests that Germany’s eCommerce recovery is not merely cyclical, but structural. As physical retail footprints continue to shrink and digital touchpoints multiply, online channels are becoming embedded in everyday retail behavior.

For retailers, platforms, and technology providers, the outlook reinforces the importance of long-term investment in eCommerce infrastructure, logistics, and omnichannel capabilities to remain competitive in one of Europe’s largest consumer markets.

Source: https://ecommercenews.eu/online-retail-in-germany-to-grow-until-2030/